Signing off: some final reflections

As I finally wrap this blog up, I've been thinking about what I've learned over the past few months. Global environmental and socioeconomic change is causing new patterns of risk which may lead to bigger disasters; where does this leave us heading into the 2020s?

Why yes, this is the best result from my "floods+reflections" image search. Photo: David Hedges

First of all, we need to let go of the idea that total flood protection is possible, and start thinking - and talking - in terms of managing risk. Planners in flood-prone locations will need to centre risk reduction, while innovative approaches to modelling the way that humans and hydrological systems interact may provide new ways to think holistically about flood risk management. Both hard infrastructure and natural flood management have their place, but as long as people live close to the water, they will need better forecasts, warning systems, and emergency plans.

Surface water flooding in Kolkata: forecasting and modelling urban flash floods will be one of the biggest challenges of the coming decades. Photo: Debarchan Chatterjee

The good news is that flood forecasts are improving: greater accessibility of satellite data, the deployment of technologies like machine learning and the involvement of the private sector, mean that more accurate forecasts will be available to more people than ever - if they're communicated well! Increasingly, we should be able to use these forecasts to act in advance of potential disasters, in order to reduce their impact.

Satellite image of flooding in the Philippines in Deccember 2019. Satellite data has become hugely important for validating flood models. Source: Dartmouth Flood Observatory

But how do we ensure that people aren’t left behind? Most flood-affected people live in places with no monitoring and warning systems; harnessing new technologies is important, but they need to complement, not replace, existing structures and local knowledge. Emergency systems are still failing some groups, especially women, children and people with disabilities; we need to find ways of ensuring that existing inequalities aren't exacerbated by failure to centre vulnerable people in our planning.

I’m optimistic that governments are beginning to taking flood risk management more seriously. My concern is that the "natural disasters" paradigm is still lurking, and that too many decision-makers lack an understanding of the the political causes of disasters: tackling these will be essential if we are to successfully navigate changing risks in a more uncertain climate.

Blogging here has been a blast, and a real learning experience in science communication. I personally find floods fascinating, but in trying to write clearly about what I think is interesting and important, I've had to think much more deeply about how I understand new concepts and why I think the way I do. And as someone whose natural writing style tends towards the, erm, digressive, this kind of blogging has been a valuable lesson in keeping things concise - and the importance of the edit button!

Hearing from readers has been lovely - thank you for all of your thoughtful comments! There’s much, much more I would have liked to talk about, but now I'm signing off: stay aware, stay prepared, and stay dry!

Like Jessie, my immediate plans involve going to bed with a book. Might have a cup of tea, make an apple crumble first.